Experts say severe drought in LI may abate as fall storms are likely

Brown lawns may be giving way to a lot of brown leaves this fall, thanks to Long Island’s extreme drought. But experts said September could be a disruption month, with enough rain to ease conditions.

There’s even a remote chance that Hurricane Fiona, which continued to flood Puerto Rico with “catastrophic and life-threatening floods” late Monday, according to the National Weather Service, could dampen the East Coast and possibly New York later this week.

Two of the National Hurricane Center’s 23 models of the storm’s track show that it could sweep across the east coast of Carolina, said Mark William Wesocki, a senior lecturer in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University and a climate scientist in New York State.

On the betting world, he said, “That’s what we call the outliers,” explaining that Fiona’s path depends in part on where Bermuda’s altitude is and how it interacts with the jet stream, either continuing to push the storm east and north. Atlantic or alternatively curl west, towards the American coast.

While the “vast majority” of Fiona’s models show her heading out to sea: “We’ve got to be careful here, if something lags, and stays over the ocean, it might slowly drift north, probably as far as New Jersey.”

Even without Fiona, the arid spot on the island is already beginning to recede — and should get even better — even though only half of the typical rainfall fell from June 1 to September 18, said Dominic Ramoney of the NWS, just 6.25 inches instead of 13.61 inches. . Meteorology is based in Upton.

Now, however, “we have a few shots in the wet weather,” he said.

He said the rain that could arrive overnight, Wednesday and Thursday evening, and possibly next week, could be just a little over an inch.

However, already this month the island — one of the wettest all year long — got about half of the 3.6 inches of rain that falls in September, he said.

However, this was the second warmest summer since the NWS began keeping records on Islip in 1963. The average temperature was 74.6, a tenth of a degree lower than the 2010 record. The average summer temperature in Islip is slightly cooler by two degrees.

New York’s escape – so far this hurricane season – from the devastating flooding that can be caused by Atlantic storms – may not last much longer, as the Western Heat Dome, which directed Pacific storms north, to the Great Lakes, and then south, toward the Gulf Coast, now It travels east, Wysocki explained.

“That pattern started to shift in late August and going into early September, as we were able to start moving storms across our region from the west, and now we’re starting to pick up more precipitation.”

In the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30, Samantha Borissoff, a climate scientist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center, warned in an email: “The Northeast tends to see larger, slower-moving storm systems rather than strike—or miss convective storms.” Like summer.”

The number of projected named Atlantic Basin storms was reduced by two to 18 in the August forecast released by Colorado State University, updated from its June forecast. The total number of hurricane days has been reduced by ten to 30, in the most recent projection.

David A. said: Robinson, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University and a climate scientist in New Jersey, says the reasons for the surprisingly calm hurricane season – so far – include: “fairly strong winds in the intermediate levels of the subtropical atmosphere.”

Abundance of dust blowing from the east of the desert is another driver.

“This tends to warm the upper atmosphere, thereby stabilizing it and deterring storms from developing,” he said by email.

The effect of La Niña may be less on this side of the world.

This weather pattern arises when the trade winds tighten from east to west around the equator, pushing the Pacific Ocean toward Asia, allowing the coldest layers of the ocean to rise to the surface off the west coast of South America.

Robinson explained that atmospheric pressure was lower in the Atlantic basin, where hurricanes form: “This may be related to temperatures that are cooler than average sea surface temperatures far in the central tropical Pacific.”

“The original forecast was that the colder waters would be more easterly, which would coincide with lower pressures in the Atlantic Basin,” he added.

Brown lawns may be giving way to a lot of brown leaves this fall, thanks to Long Island’s extreme drought. But experts said September could be a disruption month, with enough rain to ease conditions.

There’s even a remote chance that Hurricane Fiona, which continued to flood Puerto Rico with “catastrophic and life-threatening floods” late Monday, according to the National Weather Service, could dampen the East Coast and possibly New York later this week.

Two of the National Hurricane Center’s 23 models of the storm’s track show that it could sweep across the east coast of Carolina, said Mark William Wesocki, a senior lecturer in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University and a climate scientist in New York State.

On the betting world, he said, “That’s what we call the outliers,” explaining that Fiona’s path depends in part on where Bermuda’s altitude is and how it interacts with the jet stream, either continuing to push the storm east and north. Atlantic or alternatively curl west, towards the American coast.

While the “vast majority” of Fiona’s models show her heading out to sea: “We’ve got to be careful here, if something lags, and stays over the ocean, it might slowly drift north, probably as far as New Jersey.”

Even without Fiona, the arid spot on the island is already beginning to recede — and should get even better — even though only half of the typical rainfall fell from June 1 to September 18, said Dominic Ramoney of the NWS, just 6.25 inches instead of 13.61 inches. . Meteorology is based in Upton.

Now, however, “we have a few shots in the wet weather,” he said.

He said the rain that could arrive overnight, Wednesday and Thursday evening, and possibly next week, could be just a little over an inch.

However, already this month the island — one of the wettest all year long — got about half of the 3.6 inches of rain that falls in September, he said.

However, this was the second warmest summer since the NWS began keeping records on Islip in 1963. The average temperature was 74.6, a tenth of a degree lower than the 2010 record. The average summer temperature in Islip is slightly cooler by two degrees.

New York’s escape – so far this hurricane season – from the devastating flooding that can be caused by Atlantic storms – may not last much longer, as the Western Heat Dome, which directed Pacific storms north, to the Great Lakes, and then south, toward the Gulf Coast, now It travels east, Wysocki explained.

“That pattern started to shift in late August and going into early September, as we were able to start moving storms across our region from the west, and now we’re starting to pick up more precipitation.”

In the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30, Samantha Borissoff, a climate scientist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center, warned in an email: “The Northeast tends to see larger, slower-moving storm systems rather than strike—or miss convective storms.” Like summer.”

The number of projected named Atlantic Basin storms was reduced by two to 18 in the August forecast released by Colorado State University, updated from its June forecast. The total number of hurricane days has been reduced by ten to 30, in the most recent projection.

David A. said: Robinson, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University and a climate scientist in New Jersey, says the reasons for the surprisingly calm hurricane season – so far – include: “fairly strong winds in the intermediate levels of the subtropical atmosphere.”

Abundance of dust blowing from the east of the desert is another driver.

“This tends to warm the upper atmosphere, thereby stabilizing it and deterring storms from developing,” he said by email.

The effect of La Niña may be less on this side of the world.

This weather pattern arises when the trade winds tighten from east to west around the equator, pushing the Pacific Ocean toward Asia, allowing the coldest layers of the ocean to rise to the surface off the west coast of South America.

Robinson explained that atmospheric pressure was lower in the Atlantic basin, where hurricanes form: “This may be related to temperatures that are cooler than average sea surface temperatures far in the central tropical Pacific.”

“The original forecast was that the colder waters would be eastward, which would coincide with lower pressures in the Atlantic Basin,” he added.

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