MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/5/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to select the bets with the highest money-back probability – whether you’re betting on the total, the running line or the money line.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show you which bets you should target on any given night. The stars represent how much risk you should bet on the bet relative to what you would normally bet on. For example, if you normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread bet, if we give a 3-star rating, we suggest risking triple that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our sample as a guide, let’s take a look at today’s hottest MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change over the course of the day following the publication of this article. Please check here to make sure you see the latest information.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

Twins +1.5 (-150): 3– Star rating out of 5
Twins Moneyline (+110): 2 star rating out of 5

Our model shows the Minnesota Twins as slightly favourite (56.3%) in this game against the Toronto Blue Jays..

Toronto won 9-3 last night in the opening game, and Jose Berrios will start (8-4, 4.96 ERA, 5.17 ERA predicted) against Tyler Mahley (5-7, 4.40 ERA, 3.20 ERA predicted) in his debut in the Twins.

The Twins’ active roster has 121 wRC+ against the right throw, and is tied for third in the Majors, while the Blue Jays are also not behind at 113.

However, the basic merchandising data favors Mahle over Berrios, and the Twins’ bats should be able to take advantage.

Our model sees it as likely to cover the operating line as 68.0% (good for an expected return of 13.4%).

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

Over 9.0 (-115): Rating of 2 stars out of 5
Royals +1.5 (-170): rated 1 star out of 5
Royals Moneyline (-102): 1 star rating out of 5

We get a match in this place among shooters with weak peripherals.

Josh Winkowski (4-5, 5.00 ERA, 4.49 ERA predicted) gets a nod for the Boston Red Soxwhich is Zac Greinke (3-6, 4.41 ERA, 5.48 ERA expected) for the Kansas City Royals In the match between the right-wing.

The Red Sox have 101 WRC+ against the Rightists this season, the Royals are at a weaker level than 91 but are ninth in the Bigs at a hard hit rate (31.5%) against the Right.

This plays a role in impressing more than that, and although the odds are -115 over the 9.0 mark, this indicates movement without being too grandiose.

The Colorado Rockies at the Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 8.5 (-102): 3 star rating out of 5

The model indicates the value in this match between the Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks.

German right Marquez (6-9, 5.29 ERA, 4.74 expected ERA) and left Madison Bumgarner (6-10, 3.83 ERA, 4.97 expected ERA) Mileage looks good in ERA but not in expected ERA.

In fact, out of the 129 bowlers with at least 200 balls in play this season, Bumgarner’s projected ERA spread was 10th in the standings, meaning he’ll be rewarded more on weak peripherals than almost anyone else.

The Rockies boast 99 wRC+ and a heavy damage rate of 30.2% against the left. These league averages should perform well enough in the most promising game.

As for Arizona bats, they are sixth in hardest hit rate (32.6%) despite a weak WRC+ of 86.

Our model thinks this game is 61.1% more likely to be finished.

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